Monday, December 15, 2014

ANF update

Here is the back link where at a last trade value of $1.55 I suspected that only 3.5x gain on these puts was not enough.  Today they have moved up to $2 last trade while the shares trade at $27.28.  In other words, very near the money.

27.00
ANF150220P00027000
2.00
1.94  2.05

So the question now is whether to take none, some or all profits on this trade.  Given that these expire in February and that they are now up 4.44 x (exactly) along with the shape of the chart I would take all the profits here.  They could go much lower but I'm just not comfortable with such little time value on a put where the market has not established that it is ready to enter a 3rd wave down.  The sideways action can kill you pretty quick in a put this close to expiration.

ANF will eventually bounce a big bounce (nothing goes straight down) and when it does you can short it again.  I think it will end this bear market cycle lower than $6.







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