Thursday, November 20, 2014

We should see some general market selling begin to kick in tomorrow.

The MSFT chart suggests that today's $COMPX rally was driven by a gap (blue rectangle) fill following the printing of a 5th wave down.  The rally would therefore count as wave 2.  IF this is the case, wave 3 awaits and wave 3 is the moment of recognition.  Once the herd realizes that all the other members are turning south the apparent market calm, which is a complete illusion I assure you, will evaporate and the selling will pick up pace rapidly over the coming days and weeks.  While JNUG has been the star performer of late, I reverted to a 60-40 TVIX-JNUG mix at the close.  I was compelled to lean toward TVIX based on the MSFT chart and others which I think are signaling the start of southward travel for the markets.


In the case of the $COMPX, 5 waves up should now be complete and we can see evidence of this in that we are getting 4th wave HTs of smaller and smaller degree.  I suspect that this is like a fractal clock count down.  If this model is right, selling must begin tomorrow before noon and perhaps right from the opening bell.  The chart appears to be doing the typical "roll over". 



























That tiny expanding wedge that is 5 of 5 in the chart above is expanded below.  5 waves up have occurred and so selling could begin at the opening bell but that final wave looks more like part of a tiny 3rd than a 5th.  If so it could turn out to be 1-2-1-2-3-4-5-3-4-5 which would look like the blue path.
























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