[UUP] update - I'm not convinced it has peaked yet (but SOON!).

Here is the backlink to my prior UUP post.  In short, my model predicted that the rising wedge would only be a 3rd and I thus expected a higher high.  While this disagreed with the short term count of EWI, we did indeed get a higher high today.  My wedge theory is becoming increasingly less a matter of being my opinion and increasingly more a real phenomenon supported by data.   It is a simple statement of fact within the herd that nothing supports future credibility like being right today.

• Side note: it just struck me that credibility is a play on credit.  In this case, the credit of trust.  Someone who has credibility (whether earned by being right more often than not or by use of con man tricks - either seem to work with the herd...) is lent future trust before having actually earned it.  In other words, the herd begins to believe the stuff that it hears from the actor in question even before the reality of it plays out and even though nobody can perfectly predict the future.  Anything that is not actual is in fact a form of credit.  Don't ask me why I find this stuff so interesting, but something tells me that a full understanding of it is likely to be a powerful capability at some point.

Still, the wave count was unsatisfying.  It looks like a series of 3 wave moves (a-b-c), not a final 5 wave motive.  So the best way to shake the weak hands is with whipsaw volatility upward before reversing suddenly.  I don't know if the higher high today will be counted as black 5.  I do not count it like that though.  I think it was wave 3 of an expanding wedge and that my price targe ot 23.50 will eventually be hit and perhaps a small throw over at the top of the wedge.  Expanding wedges are topping features for the very reason that they provide expanding volatility into the turn.

I don't know if the down turn begins on Monday or not but but I'm not holding JNUG over the weekend as I got stopped out at $4.31 on the trailing stop and did not try to buy back in this afternoon.  If it gaps down like the blue path then that is a clear JNUG buy trigger.  If it does a 3 wave move to the top of the channel, then JNUG will have gotten screwed into the ground and it will again thus be time to go all in with a very high confidence in that case that a most significant bottom has been put in.

That would be my dream scenario.  It would be Elliott wave nirvana for M+M longs.  Again, I can't say what will happen, only what might happen.  It turns out that this is good enough to avoid being surprised and to avoid high risk setups.  This is all that any gambler can ever expect to receive given the number of variables in play.  At the end of the day, the only thing that is important to know about the stock market is that it is a completely artificial construct, totally unneeded by the economy.  It thus has no real fundamentals and is completely controlled by the madness of crowds (AKA herding behavior).