[UUP] likely within a day or two of peaking

In my previous UUP update I modeled that the UUP chart had not peaked despite conventional wisdom believing it had done so several days ago. I wrote, "It looks like a series of 3 wave moves (a-b-c), not a final 5 wave motive.  So the best way to shake the weak hands is with whipsaw volatility upward before reversing suddenly.  I don't know if the higher high today will be counted as black 5.  I do not count it like that though.  I think it was wave 3 of an expanding wedge and that my price target of 23.50 will eventually be hit and perhaps a small throw over at the top of the wedge.".

Well, we did not get the expanding wedge but rather the 4th wave triangle as you can see in the recent snapshot below.  But after blue 4 was printed the chart began to move upwards in what can possibly be counted as a rising wedge (waves 1,2 and 3) and then what looks like 4th wave action into the close.  The close was 23.46, quite close to my 23.50 target.  Based on the view that this closed Friday on a 4th wave, we could get a small additional and final wave on Monday that should peak in the 23.50-23.60 range.

We should all be a bit surprised that GLD has done anything but go down what with UUP still struggling upwards like this.  In any case, if this peaks like I model here, it can only favor the bullish M+M path modeled in this post on GLD.  Note: the GLD chart looks like it could use a pullback before powering forward.  Perhaps the final upward thrust on UUP has this effect on GLD before reversing.  I think next week is going to be a very interesting for M+M traders.  I would mos def buy JNUG again on any sizable pullback in GLD.  I just hope it doesn't gap up huge on Monday since I'm not holding over the weekend.