TVIX update

Per this post, I got into TVIX at $2.77 and stopped out at $2.74. In the comments, reader Lezgetbizy wrote, "Did you get back in after being stopped out at $2.74 this afternoon?"

I responded "no" because once I get stopped out I don't just jump back in.  The market has to show me a reason to get back in.  I'd rather be sidelined than in a stock without some model reason for being there.

In any case, I did not see a good entry point even though I was hoping for one.  In looking at the $COMPX chart (which seems to have the most effect on TVIX, I now have a count that seems to make sense.  So we'll have to see if we get a small $COMPX pullback at the open or not.  If we do, and if it goes below the lower rail and then comes back in, I would sell TVIX because it would suggest that a good sized 5th was about to play out.

If that happens, TVIX could easily make up for lost time (i.e. capitulation) and sell below $2.50.  After all, the DJIA and $COMPX are higher highs and so it stands to reason that TVIX should have a lower low.  But after that plays out I just don't see right now what else $COMPX could do to rally so I would buy TVIX on that 5th wave peak (somewhere within the green box) and then see if the markets then roll over sometime next week.

I do feel that if the miners are really breaking out (and the action today gets follow through tomorrow), the market only has a few days left before it rolls over.