TVIX update - are we really in a massive expanding wedge 4th??

I have been on the sidelines with TVIX since I got stopped out @ $2.74.  I have done no trades since that time until getting back in at the close today.  I am running tight stops here ($2.36). So it seems they were able to take TVIX into the mid to low twos after all.  But the VIX is now at historic levels of being shorted as I posted before (with link) and so this is not going to stay down here forever.  When it pops, it is going to pop big. 

I'll just keep letting them stop me out and then staying out until I get a new hand that I like.  We've all seen how fast this thing can move to the upside when it has a mind to.  I like the $COMPX setup today and so I have a valid reason to be back in. 

• Side note: It is my experience that if you get into shares without a chart reason to do so then you lose more than you win.  Even with a model you don't always win but you do know when you should get out.  This is why I am not a huge fan of short term options.  I probably recently wasted $800 on some Nov puts for FB.  At the time I called it a lottery ticket which should have keyed me into not doing it given that I know lottery tickets are a sheeple tax.  So on that one I will pay the sheeple tax!

In any case, I do want to present a model that could turn out to be wildly profitable if it turns out like I think it might.  There is nothing, and I mean nothing, that is more profitable than having a correct view of future events.  The recent wave down in TVIX made me believe it was a 2nd wave because it has the shape of a 3 wave move.  I kept seeing "a-b-c" in the structure and wondering why it was not bottoming.  Well, I think this can be explained by the model below.  Each wave of this potential expanding wedge has, so far, been a 3 wave move which is as it should be. 

We won't know if TVIX has actually bottomed yet until tomorrow but in any case we are very near support and the market internals are weakening fast. The DJIA RSI is looking quite weak relative to actual performance.  The DJIA has literally been stepping up small stair steps without any significant pullback for almost a month straight.  Remember what they say, stair steps up, elevator down...

But our challenge will be to not get too excited as TVIX begins to rocket.  Simply keep our eye on the prize.  Look for that B wave squiggle in the middle of the channel as circle in blue above.  If you see 5 waves up from the bottom, do yourself a favor and get to the sidelines for the a-b-c back down and then waltz back in for the powerful C wave up.  Even better still, when this thing peaks in the $8-$10 range (depending on how quickly it moves up), sell the Hell out of it and even be so bold as to buy into SVXY.

I don't know that this model will play out but it would fit a lot of the observations I have made such as the falling wedge being a 3rd followed by higher highs and lower lows, etc.  Not very many other things could account for all of this.