Wednesday, November 19, 2014

M+M are not out of the TA woods just yet.

While my primary model is that the miners have bottomed and will now put in a big rally, we cannot be comfortable with such gut feelings until we have chart evidence to verify it. 

The model below in blue is my primary (at least to wave 3 of the rally) but I cannot rule out that the red path will not be taken because, so far, only 3 waves up have occurred off the bottom.  I circled some sideways stuff that could count like a triangle and if it is a triangle then we are already working on C of the bounce.  

Note how the bounce has now protruded into the area of the prior 4th wave (pink rectangle) while coming very close to the 38.2% fib.  So for now we are in the danger zone and nobody knows for sure how this will turn out because the herd might not even have made up its mind for something that is so short term.


Bottom line: until we see 5 waves up we have to stay on high alert.  If you see that 5th wave move up to perhaps the 38.2 fib, buy the pullback that should come back to around today's closing price level for GDX of $19.19 which would be wave 2.   If you can be in M+M for any 3rd wave up move it will be a happy time indeed.

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