JNUG threat if move up in GLD is just a gap fill...

GLD recently threw under a large falling wedge and then retraced back up into the wedge channel.  Normally I would be thinking "breakout imminent" but there are lots of warning signs, not the least of which is my new theory that wedges are 3rds or Cs.  Also there is the small matter of a triangle being used to connect the first wave up from the bottom and the current wave up.  Also, the current wave up was a violent move, very C like in nature, just the kind of thing  needed to make the hungry fish jump at the bait.  The bearish short term model for GLD is in this prior post.

From the JNUG side, the volatility is extreme with a 30% swing in effect for today.   This wild volatility is signaling an impending direction change.   I don't know that it will have the ability to get all the way up to $4.85 but if it does, I'm selling into it.  Since I don't have time to sit and watch, I currently have tight 2% trailing stops enabled.  But I hope you can see that this mess is not motive looking, at least not so far.  It looks like a large expanding triangle with pretty clear 3 wave movements per leg.

Folks, we are near a major trend change here and so the goal of the market is to shake as many freeloaders and day traders and weak hands as possible before sending JNUG to $12 or higher.  Whipsaw is the tool of choice for this!  But here is what I know:

• gold is not going to zero.
• juniors are not all going out of business.
• massive rise in volume and volatility predict a major trend change.
• the trend since 2011 has been down, down, down.  All of the tourists are flocked over to one side of the ferry with no clue that it is they themselves who will cause it to capsize.
• trader bearishness toward gold is at record lows and everyone who cannot read a fucking chart on the main stream media says "gold is going straight down".  I wonder where these people get their credentials for trading.  It is laughable to watch them. 

You have seen how this can move in a day and so here is my suggestion: if you you are long JNUG and you do not use stops, don't wake up one AM and find a 20% paper loss and then run to sell.   That is the herd panic move.   We are just too close to that magical mid to low $2 range to get panicked out for a big loss. Just wait a day or two  (or perhaps just 2 hours!).  It will change.  JNUG is not going to zero!  And even if they could take it to 50 cents, all that would do would be to predict an even larger bounce faster because the lower they take it, the higher the percentage gains will be for those who bought at the bottom.  The market cannot afford to create too good of an opportunity because there will always be those who are not fooled and they will load up big time while there is blood in the streets.  Likewise, if you are up 25% in a single day and the charts look iffy, don't be afraid to take profits because until these wild swings are behind us, you could get rich selling the peaks and buying the dips.