Tuesday, November 18, 2014

GLD chart: short term caution required.

So today GLD filled the recent big gap.  This occurred as the chart formed a rising wedge which I have been theorizing for some time now means it is a 3rd or a C.   Well, in this case it is not a 3rd; below is not 3rd wave impulsive action IMO.  Finally, the chart kissed the 50% fib of the most recent wave down.

Bottom line: there is a lot to worry about in this chart for the short term.  In order to turn bullish, it must somehow ruin the rising wedge formation before that bearish formation is confirmed.  Having said that, it is the chart's job to instill fear like this at the major turns.    It really could still go either way but one cannot ignore the potential near term danger here.  Again, I have not forgotten Avi Gilbert's original GLD target which centered around $105.  Those targets were chosen using fib relationships, not gut feel.  They are outputs of a model.


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