Don't expect the M+M charts to be easy to read near the turns.

We have volatility in some areas, stagnation in others (look at the S+P 500 chart for record near term stagnation).  The price action is doing its best job of obfuscating the coming direction which is typical of a trend change.  But until the trend changes, it remains the same.

The count in metal can now go either way: a massive break out or a reversal to lower lows.  I still have not forgotten that Avi Gilbert's original price target for GLD centered around $105.  So I am aware that it can go lower.  But I also have to observe that JNUG is up 80% from its lows and if one fools around too long it could just take off.  Yes, this is the really tough zone for trading because it can literally go either way.

So below is a trigger I am watching.  I currently have half my account in TVIX and half in JNUG.   The threat (or opportunity) we face is shown below.  SLV bottomed and has now taken what could be counted as a 3 wave step up.  In addition, it closed a gap that was formed by breaking below that blue support line.  And now it is testing that support line from below.  Well, it will either gap above it very soon or it will begin to break down.  This is why I am holding JNUG overnight.  The move up, should it occur will likely be a 3rd of 3 in order to count very well. 

Below is the count that scares me into holding JNUG overnight.  Again, we could see a massive gap up of $1-$1.50 if a 3rd of 3rd unfolds and that would send JNUG 60+ % higher in a single day and then predict much higher prices going forward.

I don't know how this will play out for sure and neither does anyone else.  But with half my account in TVIX I am not all in on JNUG.  If they are going to take M+M significantly lower then I will just liquidate TVIX to buy JNUG more at lower prices.  I'm not talking about 10% here.  I would only go all in on JNUG for much lower prices, back down in the twos.

Again, this is far from my normal strategy but I don't see how I am going to lose here.  M+M are not going to zero.  If we suddenly get massive deflation, one could argue that M+M could get sucked down but there is no argument that it would also collapse the stock market.  So the JNUG half of my account would go down 80 or 90% perhaps.  But the other half would be in TVIX and it would go up 10X or more.  That's a trade off I can live with.  Also, deflation (assuming deflation is responsible for a fall in M+M prices) always bottoms at some point and then the M+M reversal would be historic.  In fact, if the reversal started today it would still be a memorable one compared to other historical events.

So once more I will state that you rarely get an opportunity to buy the gold sector at such low prices.  They could go lower and if they do I will buy more.  History shows that the miners are simply not going to stay down forever.  For people that want to trade it, a gap up above that resistance line will be very bullish and a fall below $15.35 would likely signal much lower prices.