Sunday, November 16, 2014

DJIA is likely going to begin a major reversal next week.

The DJIA is experiencing major volatility swings which is something I have written many times that we should expect as part of the topping process.  This was a very strong, monster bull that was fueled by massive debt of all kinds including margin debt, massive government intervention (via its attack dog, the Federal Reserve) and while it is not common knowledge right now, the use of massive fraud.  Much of the ridiculous rise since 2009 can be attributed to the Bernanke Put and QE which we will find at some point was used to buy stocks directly (this is why we need to audit the fed).  Buying stocks is done openly by other central banks even though it is a complete scam.  It is an open secret that our Fed does indirect equity buying but I strongly believe an audit would find direct buying was done in the later stages of the Ponzi as well and that would be frowned upon by the people to say the least.

The DJIA chart has now counted out a nice A-B C pattern which is now culminating with an expanding wedge which is a well known topping pattern.



Once the chart breaks back into the channel of the expanding wedge, the smart money will cut and run leaving retail bagholders wondering what hit them.

The coming bankruptcies that nobody sees coming are crystal clear to me, as clear as the explosion of AIG was (and my put options on that one turned out to be a 66 [sixty six] bagger - by far my best trade ever).  GE, for one, is going to BK.  All the signs are there.  A pathetic Altman Z Score, 374 billion in debt backstopped by 10.58 measly billion in cash at the time of this writing according to Yahoo Finance, unorthodox cash raises, selling of assets, etc.   And all the while sporting a 3.3% divvy.  That's right, share dilution and asset sales in order to fund the confidence-building divvy.  When the divvy is cancelled (real soon now), GE shares will plummet because who wants to own all the risk of a massive shadow bank with potential fraud issues (like any bank) without getting any reward?

GE knows they have a solvency crisis but they are not telling anyone.  But who cares what they say when their actions speak louder than words?  Structurally the company is simply a vendor finance scam, loaning money to its customers in order to "buy" its products.  This is not something unique to them.  It's an old game and it always blows up.  If you don't know what I mean, google "borrow short and lend long".

As GE goes, so go the markets.  When the GE leverage blows up in its face we will see the panic begin to show up.  The DJIA will probably begin to plummet before we get "The GE Event" that I know is coming and GE will probably not default on its obligations (AKA BK) until the 3rd of 3 down.  But the collapse will likely play out quicker than most people think because while the leverage is applied slowly over time in order to average up, the risk off  play tends to unfold much more rapidly.  Stair steps up, elevator down.

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