Attention TVIX hopefuls, this post is for you.

In this post I indicated that the $COMPX was likely building a 4th wave.  Today that is slowly playing out.  It threw under the lower rail and then creeped (and I mean painfully slowly) back up into the channel.  So now it will put in 5 waves up but the thing to watch for is how big those 5 waves will be.  If it puts in 5 small waves and cannot break out the top channel then it will start to seem like the longs are finally out of gas.  Perhaps just how badly the liberals got their asses kicked in the elections is finally sinking in.  Perhaps the traders are beginning to fear that without liberal support of the debt Ponzi that their leveraged bets are in big trouble.  If this is the case, the top rail will hold and then the chart will fall below the lower rail.  If we see that then folks, I'm back into TVIX fast and loud.

At that same link above I said I would not get back into TVIX unless it showed me something worth getting excited about.  After all, I have been ground down bit by bit before.  I know how that game plays.  So once I am stopped out I need to see something motivational before I am inclined to get back in.    What would motivate me here for TVIS would be a break out of the top rail.  I think there is a very good chance that it will happen but the only model that I have to go by right now is the $COMPX model in the post above and it is telling me to expect 5 more waves up before this rally is really done.  Bottom line, an expected break of the $COMPX's horizontal triangle lower rail OR a break out of the top resistance line shown in the TVIX model below is what I am going to need to see before I get back in.  Besides, I'm enjoying my JNUG too much today to want to think about too much else.  I got stopped out at $3.84 and back in at $4.02 when the break out happened.  In other words, it showed me something.  It showed my that it was not going to have a 61.8% fib pullback and the breakout completely change the nature of the chart.  I'm leaving my stops there at $4.03 for now but plan to continue to ratchet them up. 

The next real resistance on JNUG is $4.87.  This price corresponds to the top of the gap mentioned for GDX in this post.  The trick with these gaps is to sell at the top of the gap if it looks like it is near the end of a wave count but then buy back in if they can bust through or pullback and get a running start and then bust through.