Another potential TVIX model to look for.

Assuming that TVIX will not make a lower low than $2.50 before the broader markets begin to break down, it could look like the model below which retains the a-b-c shape.  That big spike in the middle there smells and awful lot like a penultimate.  It even has a triangular shape if you aggregate all the data between the 22nd and the 28th.  Some Elliotticians would actually count it as a triangle but I don't see how to.

In any case the new count actually looks pretty good in many regards.  Time will tell if this is the right model but if so then we should get some "news" in the market soon like renewed hostilities in Ukraine, etc. that will be blamed on the reason to begin selling.

Even if this next pullback is not "the big one", the markets have been going up and up and up with nary any reasonable pullback to speak of since the 15th of last month!  I mean, there is hardly a 38.2 retracement in the lot.

If we look at it from the $COMPX side,we are up against significance again after a very strong rally in which longs must be exhausted.  The RSI is beginning to fall again just like it had fallen before the last peak was showing any real price weakness.  I'm hoping the $COMPX can finish off that last little push to for a full and clear 5 waves up because that will be our next best opportunity to call a top on this 2009 rally.