Trading plan for Friday 10-24-2014

I currently model the entire run up to 6 and change to be wave 1.  Then everything until Wed was wave 2.  Then we had 5 visible waves up into 1 of 3 and then 3 waves back down to a higher low into 2 of 3.  While the DJIA futures are only down 12 points right now I would be completely unsurprised to see either a gap up at the open or a very rapid move up to a higher high than Wed high.

If we do get a rapid move up to a higher high then most people should not try to trade it; the market is tricky and it will react to day traders in real time as it goes towards its intended destination.  Having said that, the wave 1 up was choppy and hard to ready but I think that wave 3 up will be neither.  It will slip like ice in the upward direction and a clear 5 waves should be exposed.   Look below how [A] of 2 was choppy and hard to read but [C] of 2 was simple to read.  A perfect 5 waves with a gap in the 3rd wave.  Completely obvious.

This is the nature of 3rds and Cs and so I might try to trade a couple of the bigger internal waves.   In any case, wave 1 was rather stretched out, 20 trading days in all.  Wave 3 could span the same time period but with more vertical movements than all the sideways stuff of wave 1.

I don't want to look too far ahead before we have even confirmed wave 3 up is in progress but a quickly look at the 120 Minute TVIX chart pops these lines out at me.  The prior peak found resistance at the bottom of the prior shelf.  If a 3rd wave is about to unfold then we should see that red line taken out with gusto.  Maybe even a 3rd of 3rd of 3rd gap.  Then a move up to the blue line, move back down to test the red line from above and then blast out to new heights eventually peaking in the $9 range.  Yes, I'm modeling that TVIX is ready to put in nearly a triple from here.   Of course I don't know if this will play out, it's just a model.  But as the milestones in the model are knocked down the the confidence in it should go up.  Do keep in mind at all times that this is TVIX.  It is not a stock.  It is not a long term hold.  While day trading it will be counterproductive for most players, you do have to sell at the major peaks because retracements should be expected to be 50% of the gain and eventually TVIX will peter out as the stock crash finished up in 18-24 months and then you will want to either sell or short it.

If there is still a stock market left by then that is...