Today's trading action and tomorrow's plan.

Today's trading action was weak for the markets.  The $COMPX was up 2.2 points (0.05%).  In other words, nothing.  DJIA up 12.53, again negligible.  S+P500 was actually down 2.95 points.  Russell 2000 again down 1.34 points.  Yet in the AH trade they took TVIX down below support.  Perhaps it was just a throw under of the triangle I outlined but I don't like it at all.

Bottom line is that this could be a bear trap.  This could be turning into a higher high than the ending diagonal high.  This would be more validation on my observation that wedges are 3rds or Cs.

Of course, nobody knows for sure what will happen in the future but I will say that no new bear market has been clearly established yet and thus right now is not the time for assumptions or hope.  If TVIX cannot get back above that buy-sell line at or within a very few minutes of the open, I'm going to cut my losses on this trade and wait for technical evidence that the bounce is over. 

Of course, Yellen speaks on Wed and it looks to me like the market is waiting on that news, deciding to treat her words as important even though she is as much a lame duck as Obama is.  Still, I have seen the market run TVIX down near turning points before in order to screw people out of their shares right before a turn is going to happen.  So if I got out and then they sold off hard then I would probably venture back into them at the close.  Fear and discipline will get us through this ambiguous chart.  If the chart is ambiguous then people should ask themselves why they are holding it.