Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Thoughts on TVIX and the markets.

Folks, we cannot say this market rally or the sell off in TVIX was unexpected.  Whether this is a 2nd wave bounce (as evidenced by TSLA and $NYA) or a 5th wave that will likely short stroke and fail to create a higher high, either way we should have expected a strong bounce off the original bottom.  After all, for more than 5 years now the market has been buying the dip and it has always worked out for the players.  Old habits die hard but they will in fact die.

To my credit, I did warn about the inverted head and shoulder in this post and yesterday I warned that a break below support meant go to the sidelines in this postIn this post I indicated that the S+P could still go higher leading to a potential target price for TVIX of $2.70.  So again, we cannot say there was no warning about the TVIX sell off.  Greed, meet fear and discipline!

I've been sitting on the sidelines after getting stopped out today. I'm considering buying back in during the after hours trade but the action so far is not as positive as I would have hoped.  I was hoping for a washout bottom and then a recovery in the AH.  So I'll probably just wait for the open to see what gives.  Maybe my $2.70 target will be hit after all.

But know this: I firmly believe that the DJIA if not other indices, while probably in a 5th wave, will not hit a higher high than the high of the ending diagonal which peaked Sept 19th.  The $COMPX could do it but if so then it will not be confirmed by the DJIA and the S+P.   Just let the $COMPX run this insanity out of its system and then we will be returned to our regularly scheduled market panic and economic collapse. 

Once this next peak occurs, my confidence goes sky-freaking-high that the northing of the herd is over and that southing will again take hold.  The transparently false market optimism will reverse and it will turn into real, palpable fear. This herd will be turning south very soon, perhaps as soon as the bat faced disposable fed speaks on Wed.  But here is the interesting par of my prediction: it won't matter what she says.  No matter what drivel comes out of her mouth, the herd will take it badly.  I honestly hope she says that the fed is going to continue buying treasuries in order to hold interest rates down because I would like to test my theories.  But her recent speech, I think, was clear indication that she had to worry more about a pitchfork revolution than falling asset prices.  So I think the stimulus program is over despite what many people say.  Too many middle class and elderly are getting hurt by the inflation scam for it to go on very much longer.  The interest rates will soon be taking off as well.

5 comments:

  1. Cap'n,
    Is the bull dead, or still in its death throes?

    "The bear is loose. The back bite has been administered and this bull is dead."
    http://economati.blogspot.com/2014/10/djia-stair-steps-up-elevator-down.html?m=0

    Steven B.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm sticking with "dead". While we have not seen real panic yet, major, major technical support is broken. Also, Yellen pretty much told us that she knows a pitchfork revolution is brewing if she doesn't stop the stimulus on schedule.

    Once it stops and the panic begins, there will be no un-doing it. She could start it up again later and the market won't care. Once in panic mode the market is going to stay that way far longer than most people think is possible.

    But still, we have to define bear market. IF by that that you mean higher prices across all of the indices, I would say no. The NY Stock Exchange composite is looking like a normal a-b-c to the prior 4th. The NASDAQ composite could actually create a new high at this point because I think that the ending diagonal was really just a 3rd wave and the price action since has validated that view.

    Bottom line: I think the DJIA will not be able to go higher, the $COMPX might be able to do it but not by much. Again, during the major turns the market has just GOT to be tricky so that it throws as many off its scent as possible. By FAR the probabilities favor the next move to be screaming panic to the downside as the debt Ponzi accelerates into a complete wipe out of a crash. Look for credit events, fears about liquidity, banks failing their fake stress tests and the like. When the next selling begins, don't hesitate to buy and hold because there will not be another bounce like the current one any time soon.

    All this is JMVHO of course, everyone must think for themselves when it comes to gambling with their own money!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Cap'n,
    So are you still buying TVIX at $2.70?
    Steven B.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Captain,

    There are folks saying that the Fed isn't going to end QE3 this month? I'm with you. I think they'll end it.

    Cheers!

    Chance

    ReplyDelete
  5. "...So I'll probably just wait for the open to see what gives. Maybe my $2.70 target will be hit after all."

    Cap'n, missed it, got it on 2nd read.
    Thanks in advance.
    Steven B.

    ReplyDelete

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