Thursday, October 2, 2014

More rallying tomorrow expected for the markets, good time to be on the sidelines with TVIX

I had to go to a customer's site for work today and knew I would not be able to follow the market at all.  Because of my warning about TVIX and because of the way it was stuck at the top rail of the wedge near the open, I sold TVIX as it kissed the top rail of the rising wedge from below ($3.44) at the open today. 

Now that work is done for the day I see that the AM move down in the DJIA pretty much retraced itself by the close and that despite a trip to $3.62 today, TVIX closed @$3.31. 

But I did not buy back in after hours trading today because I think the DJIA has another wave up tomorrow before this sucker's rally ends.  I don't know if it will finish tomorrow at the high of the day or whether it will hit the green line (back test from below) during the day and then head down during trading tomorrow but that next wave down is, by my count, a 3rd of a 3rd and that is a fine time to be in TVIX. 

If this model is correct, the coming DJIA 3rd of 3rd wave will likely take TVIX above the old high of $4.20.  Why?  Because that is what 3rd waves do.  They make statements.  They produce the "higher high" which tells everyone who didn't use EW to get in on the ground floor that the market is likely turning.

 Bottom line, let the tired, tired bulls have another run at the cape.  I have my sword out and am aiming for the spine just behind the skull.





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