Market update

The jury is still out with respect to the next move.  Again, common EW counts indicate that we should be breaking down right now but I don't yet see the panic.  So while I see the potential for a market bounce, I'm still holding overnight.  Again, when the big selling begins, when the panic is clear, your best bet will be to not try to get too tricky.  Slow down with trading and let the trend be your friend.  Until then I have to protect my capital so that I have the cash to play the crash.

Lower left is the $COMPX since 2009.  So I do currently model 5 of C to be over and that means a bear market should soon unveil itself if this count is correct.  The first step would be to break down the lower green rail and to potentially back test it from below.  Per the lower right picture, I think that could be happening right now.  Then we should see the lower blue rail get taken out.  Then we should see some real support at the level of blue 4 on the left hand higher level picture.

Any move above 4525 will put me on the warning track with TVIX and at 4560 or higher I am on the sidelines with TVIX until the market bounce plays out.  Any massive gap down by the markets is confirmation of the awakening bear and it would be the first move on TVIX's way to $7-$8.