It's SUPPOSED to be tricky and stressful near major market turns!

I have posted several times over the past months that we must expect stress and volatility during any major turn of the markets.  There has to be nail biting and hand wringing on both sides for a significant period of time before a new direction can be trusted to be the real new direction.  The smart trader will have none of it.  Don't be in a bet that you don't understand; don't get over leveraged; only buy the dips, not the peaks and only then based on some kind of EW model which defines your bail out point.  Then, once in, use stops.  This is how the wolves play it while the excitable sheeple run around all confused.

With this kind of disciplined approach, you will not certainly win every bet but you certainly will not lose much when you lose.  And when you do win, it will be outsized/asymetrical to your risk.  Case in point is my failed JNUG trade today.  In at 7.62, out at 7.49, 0.13 lost = 1.7%.  And then JNUG crashed without me in it.  I did not buy back in yet because I can't see a full wave count that indicates a potential bottom but I am now actively looking for the count to finish. With daily moves like this, it cannot be far off.  JNUG has been under such pressure for so long that even if GLD's wave 5 of A down is not complete yet we still deserve a significant relief rally in the shares soon.  One more big down day of about 10-15% on diminishing volume is not required but would likely do it.  That would take the shares down to $6 to meet the rapidly down sloping support line which began in mid July.

They loved JNUG at $36.  They hate it in the 6s.  Could it go lower?  Of course.  So let's look at JDST for clues.  Call me crazy but I see 5 fairly discernible waves coming up off of that blue 4 low.  Worst case for JNUG, JDST could see a pullback to ~18 before another rise to higher highs (bad for JNUG).  But if if it plays out like this then JDST will likely see resistance at the lower rail as it traces out a failed 5th.  At that point it could fall back to $18 again or even lower before making the final thrust upward as gold finishes 5 of A.

Short term swings aside, if GLD is just now tracing out 2 of 5 of A per conventional wisdom then JDST still has a good deal more to run.  The level of the prior 4th was $31.  Keep in mind that JNUG JDST bottomed in the high 8s and now we have JDST JNUG in the 6s.  Both will need to reverse split at some point because they always will put in lower lows over time due to the use of options which provide the leverage.  But the low of one should give some kind of indication of the next low of the other and JNUG is already well below the last low of JDST.  So one way to play this will be to start buying JNUG right now.  Start with a 25% position.  Buy another 25% if they cut it in half from here.  Sooner or later it is going to pop hundreds of percent and your most recent purchase will wipe out all the losses of and tranches that were bought too early (and then some). 

Catching the exact bottom is not easy and mortal men should not expect to be able to do it with any kind of hard, predictable reliability regardless of what kind of system they are using.  In general what I find with EW is that it enables fortune to reward the prepared mind.  In other words, it increases your odds at the casino; it does not guarantee you will win each time.

Once gold finishes 5 of A, JNUG will be a screaming buy.  It might be as low as $2 by then but that will only ensure huge profits as wave B plays out.  But let's not get too far ahead of the current action given that it moves 20% in a single day!  Remember, if these swings are just too much for you there is always GDXJ for less leverage, then GDX for still less leverage, and then SLV or USLV and then GLD for no leverage at all.  Pick the ETF that works for your ability to react and to set intelligent entry and exit points.