Don't catch and hold the falling knife.

On Friday, GLD made a lower low than that of December 2013 which is currently marked blue b.  So this means that we cannot be ready to bounce and form E of 4 because D cannot be lower than B.  That is not to say that we cannot bounce from here but such bounce would not be part of "the real e" which would replace the short stroke e of 4 that we have been working with for awhile now.

Bottom line is that we are at significant support here.   Black 3 bottomed in this region and so did blue b.  So we can get a bounce due to the extreme oversold condition of M+M and the extremely overbought condition of the dollar.  But it will not likely go above blue d.  If it goes back up into the channel, the 5th wave has to be considered complete and we would be looking for the a-b-c back into orange B.  I'm holding a JNUG position over the weekend hoping for a bounce on Monday but if it looks too anemic then I will likely sell out to try to catch a small profit on the trade.  But regardless, my stops are set just below Friday's low; I might touch the falling knife but I will not catch and hold it.... 

Maybe they will just keep selling it into oblivion and let me scoop it back up in the sixes.  That would be good for a triple IMO.   Bring it on!