S+P long term model

Below is my current model for the S+P , entire rally since 2009.  This is just wild speculation of course but I think it could easily turn into a case where the 5th of C will turn out to be a short stroke (failed [5]th as shown below).  The reason for this is that it would fool many people into thinking that another huge wave up is coming because [4] would find support at the (gray) trend line drawn parallel to the (gray) [A] - [3] line.  This could cause people (and software) to mistake it for being the 1-3 line of a 5 wave impulse.  After all, many market players have been calling for a "healthy" pullback of 15% so that the market can get about its real business of growing to reach the sky.

At the very least we should soon see a 3 wave fall to the level of the prior 4th (blue 4 in this case) in order to form green [4].   If that happens then [5] should be a trade-able 5 wave rally to the long side.  TVIX profits should be significant by the time [4] shows up.  Plan right now to keep them by getting to the sidelines after 3 waves down and then only getting back in if you see a lower low (or enough of a market bounce that you can grab a new scoop of TVIX at much reduced prices than are in effect at [4].  It will not pay to get your mind set into "I'm short and loving it" mode just because you might have big profits at the time.  Let the waves guide you, not emotions, because the source of wealth for stock market winners is simply the transfer of wealth from the emotional and the irrational to the calm and the rational.  The wave count helps you figure out when to lay low and when to go for it.  Your gut is unreliable in that regard because we are all affected by signals from the herd which are often head fakes.

Zooming in on just red 5 above we see that the wave could likely turn around starting next week or it could extend to around 2070 before finding a peak.  Always odds and not certainties when you are gambling folks.