[MMM] Update

In my previous post on Three M, I indicated that wave 1 down of its new bear market was likely complete.  Of course, the implication is that it should then see an a-b-c retracement, probably a vee style move, into wave 2.  It so happens that the day I posted that was the exact bottom of MMM's wave 1.

The action since then could either be counted as wave 2 of the new bear OR wave 1 of 5 of an ongoing bull.  We should know very shortly!  A higher high that blue 2 is a strong indicator that one final rally is left in the shares (and thus in the broader indices) before the real top is in.  But a new low below blue 1 tells us game over the stock market Ponzi.  The next few days will be critical in determining whether the crash begins right now or sometime in October.  In other words, what is labeled as blue 1 below can actually be a 4th wave down in an otherwise upward trend.  After all, the action through June and July do have an ending diagonal (i.e. 3rd wave) - ish feel to them.  And while I do count 5 waves down into blue 1, maybe there is an a-b-c count in there too.  If this alternate count plays out, blue 2 of a down trend is really 1 of 5 of an uptrend.  If this is the case we should see a C wave pullback that plays out, reverses and then hits a higher high than blue 2.  If that happens, cover your shorts and let 3,4, and 5 play out.  That would be the TVIX bottoms at $2.00 to $2.20 scenario.