Sunday, September 14, 2014

GE update - possible to have one more rally before actually peaking....

GE's sideways action is making me wonder if I got the count wrong.  Here is my previous post on it.  I have been modeling it in linear scale all this time.  So tonight I switched to log scale and something interesting popped out at me.  In short, the top rail has not been hit in the log scale, much less any kind of throw over as one might expect.  That whole wave from 4 to 5 should be an a-b-c deal with c being 5 waves.  The red count I put in there shows that it is possible to count that we are still working on 4 of c.  This model seems to show red 3 was a rising wedge which is in line with past observations that wedges have been 3rds.

If this count is correct then we could see one more pull back below the lower rail into red 4 followed by a santa rally into 2015.  That rally could be quite strong according to this chart, with GE moving up to the $30 range from its current price of $25.86.

This is currently not my primary model and it certainly flies in the face of what EWI is counting but I have to go with the data and leave the emotion behind.  EWI has been wrong before just like every other wave counter.  If the data tells me there is one more strong little short crushing rally ahead then I will just let it happen and look for 5 more small waves up after GE finishes its 4th wave.

GE will likely trade right in line with the DJIA.  As you can see, it bottomed in 2009 just like the rest of the markets so it is not out of phase with them.  If GE has a final rally left in it, the broader markets might also.

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