Where are we with peak credit - update.

In this post I provided a couple of models for how the 5th wave of the consumer credit chart could pan out.  But in re-reading it I see that I didn't pay enough attention to the timelines.  In short, I didn't recognize how badly the reporting of consumer credit data was lagging at the FRED website.   It is in fact several months behind. 

So this new understanding makes the second model listed in my previous post as much less likely and gives a lot more weight to the first model.  I've updated that model with vertical time markers using an extrapolated time scale.  The model itself has not changed, only the understanding that we are a LOT closer to the peak than I had thought.  In fact, the peak could already be in as far as anyone outside the fed knows.  They are holding back data on us so that they can plan their spin. 

I think the entire holiday season is going to be a total bust.  I do not think the mood of the herd is in any way upbeat or jolly.  I expect it to be a disaster no matter what reason they choose to blame it on.