Tuesday, August 5, 2014

TVIX update

In line with the previous post on TVIX, today was indeed a very nice up day for the ETF as it broke out of the resistance marked in the prior chart.  However, I do think I will change my model to move the peak of wave 1 to the right by one wave. The 3 waves moving into back 1 are now an a-b-c, then a-b-c into black 2 then you can see the triangle in between black 2 and black 3 and again a B wave triangle between black 4 and black 5 whether it finished today or will do so tomorrow AM).

So again, I expect a little bit more northward travel but then a big move back south into wave 2, should be very trade-able by shorting TVIX.  If you don't like to short or if you don't like to play against the primary trend then cash is not a bad alternative waiting for the wave 2 pullback.  I personally want to see TVIX get pummeled back down to $2.80 but I think I will not be that lucky.  There are 3 reasons why I'd like to see it:
  1. I'll make a killing on the short.
  2. It will be an awesome set up for a massive 3rd wave explosion in TVIX - a money doubler or more.
  3. All of the pundits will be out saying "I told you suckers not to play volatility, you played with fire and got burnt, blah blah blah".  I might make some coin off of playing the TVIX turns but the looks on the faces of these guys once the 3rd wave breaks out will be priceless.


Bottom line: strongly consider locking in some of your profit so that you can scoop up more shares on the dip.  Don't just sit there and take it when you know the 5th wave is in because there is no place to go but down, even if only for 2-3 days.

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