TVIX update

In yesterday's TVIX update I wrote, "If we get a sharp-ish C wave rally to somewhere in the blue rectangle (which fills the 3rd of 1 gap)... then expect a [subsequent] gap down and then lower lows, perhaps with 5 of 5 ending in the $2.20 range or so."

Well, we got action today that could be seen as fitting that description.  The gap I referenced yesterday was indeed closed before the chart lost steam and began back down.  We were left at the close with a declining double top that could very likely gap down a bit at the open on Friday. 

Still, hope springs eternal for TVIX longs like me because it is difficult to count a good a-b-c into the past few days of trading on the TVIX chart.  So, while the levels could indeed indicate that the 25th-28th was a sucker's rally with more downside to come, the current wave pattern doesn't very clearly confirm this outcome.  So I have made the decision to just hold overnight and let it stop me out tomorrow (again, stops set to $2.71) if that is what it must do.  The trade off is that it could also gap up big time at the open, thus fooling everyone who expects that trading will be positive into a holiday weekend.

In either case, a fall below the lower low means that we should not be surprised to find a final bottom in the $2.20 range.  Conversely,  a move up to a higher high than today's gap up means that the bull market which has been in place since early 2009 could be over.  How would that be for a Labor day present?  A befitting slap in the face of Mark and Patsy if you ask me.  I don't put it beyond the global elite to pull it off.