Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Still no panic yet but it's coming.

As we play out wave 5 of 1 down (that massive gap down just now was 3 of 3 of 5), I look forward to selling TVIX at a nice profit once the waves play out (likely at the end of the day) and then I will flip long, perhaps into JNUG for another grab at the golden ring while the markets do their a-b-c recovery over Wed and perhaps Thurs.  Meanwhile, the rest of the world is already looking past the obvious negative turn in the markets with one talking head telling us how TSLA shares could double next year.  Of course in my view they will do nothing of the kind.  They will collapse like everything else being quite overbought at this point, even for a good company.

But the reason I bother posting about this is the comment that the herd member Joe Fahmy makes:

As soon as we get out of this correction or pullback or whatever you want to call it I think Tesla is in a similar situation (to Zillow in late March). Great earnings, highly shorted, highly hated, disruptive technology we think Tesla could double in the next 6 to 12 months.”. 

The yellow highlight shows how the recent sell off is being summarily dismissed as inconsequential in the big picture by this guy.  Of course, thinks he, this is just a minor disturbance in the neverending flow of perpetual Ponzi pump prosperity.  He has no idea the the markets have entered a massive bear market that will be far worse than the 2007-2009 crash. 

People like this are our friends, dear awakened shorts.  They tell us that all is well with our plans.  The herd is long and strong in its convictions that trees must grow to reach the sky.  And Fahmy?  Yahoo finance assumes that he must be a stock genius because during the pump phase of the debt Ponzi he happened to speculate that Zillow would get the pump.  Yes, folks, many out there attribute their calls to insight when in fact everything was skyrocketing into the pump.  They still believe in the so called fundamentals even though, like dot bomb, you could bet on a stone and the price would go up.  It was the rising credit that did it, not company performance.  That rising tide of money floated all boats.  That rising tide made those "fundamentals" what they were.  But the real fundamental is the rise and fall of credit and all those other numbers like P/x will look good in rising credit and they will suck in falling credit.  At some point as the tide recedes (probably during wave 3 of 3 down - Prechter's so called moment of recognition), people like Fahmy will begin to realize that they really don't know a damned thing about how markets really work.

I guarantee you that this guy and many like him will be going through the phases of Kubler Ross soon:
  1. Denial
  2. Anger
  3. Bargaining
  4. Depression
  5. Acceptance
These guys who are calling for a double in shares like TSLA will be the first nanny state whiners to beg for government to "do something" once the crash is raging.   They will blame everything under the sun except their own ignorance.  They won't even know why they are begging, it will be knee jerk in nature but I'll tell it right now.  It won't be so much because of their mounting losses but because they will view the pullback as a collapsing belief structure.  In other words, these morons are true believers in centrally managed economies (and centrally managed lives as well).  When the Ponzi collapses and the economic tide goes out, do you know who guys like Fahmy will find has been skinny dipping this whole damned time??  I do: their heric "dear leaders" of centrally managed everything. At some point they will realize that they should change their names to Mark and Pasty because of how gullible they have been all this time.  Unfortunately for them, they will lose their whole fortune first.

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