S+P 500 update: another likely turning point very close.

EW is about odds and not certainties, at least when viewed by the feeble human sensory input and processing capabilities.  Trying to call them in real time will usually produce some false starts, especially near the end where the end of a 3rd and the end of a 5th can be very hard to discern without some helpful marker such as a 4th wave triangle.  Experienced traders know that this is just part of the game.

But near the major turns, the market is not giving such obvious help and that is by design.  In any case, the recent action by the S+P 500 show that the market dip that bottomed in early August was not wave 1 down of a new bear as originally thought but rather likely the bottom of a 3 wave move down into a 4th.  I picked up on the fact that the wave terminated in a falling wedge but I assumed that meant it was a 3rd wave down.  Now I see that the falling wedge can be a 3rd or a C which makes sense to me given that Prechter says "3rd waves are like C waves".

If the new wave count below is correct, this rally should terminate PDQ.  The recent strength in TVIX despite broader market index increases suggests that the that early traders (smart money/insiders) are beginning to hedge their bets.

Time will tell but these could easily be the final minutes of the final wave before the beginning of the great reset.