DJIA up. NAS100 up. $COMPX up. S+P 500 up....

....yet TVIX did not only not go down, it was actually a little green.  Again.  It's waaaay too soon to get excited about that yet because we just saw 5 waves down that led to a lower low.  But the current action where TVIX is effectively catching a bid simply by not going down more when it definitely could be doing so should not be ignored.

The recent 5 waves down could be 5 of 5 of 5 or they could be 1 of 5 of 5.  I do not know which they are.  In fact, it might could be that this was only the 3rd wave down (black 5 was really just the 5th of some third).  None of that matters right now.  What does matter is that 5 waves down have transpired after an a-b-c 4th and now here we are looking very double bottom-ish with a very round left bottom and likely a much shorter duration right hand bottom.

Worst case, this is only 1 of 5  not all of 5.  In the case we go up 1/3 or 1/2 of the way that was just lost from $4.20 and then the trap door opens into 3 of 5 of 5.  But still, that means we should get a trade-able bounce.  Second worst case, this is not the bottom of the 5th but rather the bottom a of a big 3rd.  In that case, we a-b-c back up to the $4.20 level again and then turn back down for another big, short crushing wave down in which TVIX must reverse split again.

I'm still in the shares, still at about what I paid for them.  We seem to be building a base here. 

I don't know much, but I do know that eventually this thing is going to pop and pop hard. 

I want to share a small story.  I am on the road this week visiting a big customer whose shares have been skyrocketing of late.  On 3 different occasions today the workers were talking about how exciting they were for their stock options, etc.  They are all looking for higher prices even though the stock has been skyrocketing.  This is a pretty reserved technical crowd but they could barely contain their (irrational and ignorant) jubilant feelings on the matter.  Such signs are typical of the topping process.