Did TVIX just put in a failed 5th on Friday?

Back in this fairly recent post I wrote, "... If the ending diagonal bottoms, breaks back up into the channel and then hits ~$4.20 (the 38.2% fib retracement of that 3rd wave) in a clear a-b-c corrective wave and then begins to stall, suspect that it is really wave 4 and that the real wave 5 down will come.  But in this case I expect that 5th wave to be an inclining double bottom (failed 5th), not a lower low. "

It is quite possible that this is exactly what just happened.  Below I have re-counted the waves in order to match the above scenario.  The ending diagonal is now depicted as a 3rd wave not a 5th.  The black 4th wave rose right back up to the level of the prior 4th wave (blue 4).  I suggested ~$4.20.  It was actually more like $4.27 but well within a reasonable level of the definition "bounce back to the level of the prior 4th".

Since then it has had 3 full waves down and then the start of yet another.  The key of whether this is really wave 2 of 3 or 5 of 5 is conceptually simple:  If  the decline from blue 4 was an a-b-c then the above count is wrong.  In that case, what is labeled as blue 4 is really 1 of 3, blue 5 is 2 of 3 and next week we should see a small scale 3rd of 3rd play out.

But if that decline from blue 4 really is a failed 5th in the form of blue 5 then it should be 5 waves down.  Below is the zoom in of just that last wave down on Friday.  I have to say, while I could easily count it as a failed 5th as shown below, I could also likely make the case that it is wave 2 down.  I will also say that 2nd waves are rarely found as falling wedges like shown below so this lends some weight to the failed 5th scenario

Regardless of whether below is a failed 5th or waves 1 and 2 of of a brand new 3rd wave going up, we cannot see a trade one penny below blue 5 below without invalidating both of these scenarios.  Because of this I have to believe that Monday will be bad for the broader markets from the opening bell.  If either of these counts are correct, get ready to make some serious coin on TVIX next week.

Note these important points:  

• A higher high than black 4 takes 90% of the risk out of buy and hold.   
• A break to a higher high than the old high of $4.27 moves that safety level up to 99%.  If you see this you can ignore a lot of the volatility because TVIX has gotten SHATTERED for 5 years now and every dog has its day.  Bow wow wow, Mr. Frodo!

I do not plan on being nearly as active in trading TVIX once those safety factors are built in because it's too easy to zig when you should zag.  With the tail wind at my back I need to do more sailing and less motoring.  The 2007-2009 experience showed me that when things are in the full on collapse phase I should only trade out after 5 good sized waves.  This stuff about being skittish at every shadow that has enabled my self preservation through the days of this endless debt Ponzi driven bull market was good for me (essential in fact) until I could confirm a bottom is in.  After that, it's often needless thrash.  It's not much different than a race car driver having to be more careful in the rain while also acknowledging that when the track is dry and sun is shining the driver has to let it hang out a little more if he has any hope at winning.  If he doesn't, the next guy will.