$COMPX might be signalling end of wave 2

It's possible that wave 2 will be an expanding wedge.  I count 5 waves with a throwover in the 5th as shown below.  If the chart follows the red model to test the lower rail, bounce and then break back down below it then chances are high that wave 2 is over.  A lower low than black 1 is clear confirmation of this and it should happen with gusto and panic. 

Time will tell but in the time it took me to capture the above image, annotate it and post here, the $COMPX chart broke back down through the upper rail with a gap that showed that the market knew that line existed.  Now it appears to be back testing and if that back test fails we will very likely see increasing weakness.  If the markets, after having rallied strongly in the morning, end up in the red at today's close then I think wave 2 is done and gone.  My recent re-entry into TVIX @3.12 is looking better and better.  I just moved my stop up to $3.09 so the worst I can do on this trade if I am wrong is to lose 3 cents.