[AA] update

Backlink.

Alcoa Aluminum has been on a tear ever since I suggested that a bottom could be in in this post and slightly more than suggested a bottom was in with this post.  It recently very nearly hit my $18 target, something which was ludicrous to even consider at the time.  But I am seeing that 5 waves down happened and then a perfect a-b-c move back up followed it.  So this is either likely to be a good sized a-b-c OR it is 1-2-3 in which case we should see 4 and 5.  Alcoa is a good short here IMO and the cover point is one penny above what I labeled as 2 below.  In fact, anything above $16.55 would be suspicious enough to cover.  With a current price of 16.34 you risk about 20 cents in order to make 2 bucks minimum.  This is what I call trade-able odds.  Current target price is $14.80 (the 38.2 fib).

They hated it at $8, they loved it at $17.  That's the market for you.