Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Time to start looking for an entry point into TZA, currently $15.71.

I've been watching TZA (3x inverse small caps) for some time now.  I suspect that the 5 wave move from mid May to July 1st was actually the final wave down for TZA.  After that I think we saw the first wave down in the new bear market for small caps (which implies new bull market for TZA).  The turning process takes time but with several high profile bad earnings releases I think we are seeing the fuel for the reversal materialize.

That first small wave down off the peak seemed like 5 waves to me, not 3.  That implies that a lower low is coming soon.  I don't fear it, I hope for it.  If it is a 2nd wave vee like I think it will be, we will now see 5 more small waves down that do not go below the early July low.  Of course, a higher high that 16.15 is a clear buy signal.  This may also choose to waste time in a 4th wave triangle.  I do not plan on buying it until a clear entry point presents itself below which I can set my stops and go about my business.


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