Special S+P 500 model post. The rally that began in 2009 is over.

For anyone new tuning in, these pages use Elliott waves as a market timing tool.  I hope you find the charts below interesting to say the least.

After seeing so many other big name charts look like they had a full wave count that would imply that their bull market (in place since 2009) is now over, I decided to do a deep dive on the S+P 500 to see if I could find a reasonable wave count that might confirm or deny those individual equity wave count analyses.

Below is what I came up with.  This first chart shows the entire A-B-C formation since the start of 2009.  At this resolution you can make out all but the smallest waves.  Triangles are in the right places and I didn't have to "stretch" to make any of the counts.  It is a thing of beauty if I do say so myself.  I have very high confidence in this chart.

If I am correct, selling should begin at the open on Monday and the major indices should all close in the red and never go higher than this point again, likely for the rest of your life if you are 50 or older. Think I'm kidding?    


As bold as it might seem to be to say, I am not kidding at all. 

Following the crash of 1929, stocks did not recover their '29 highs until the mid 1950s.   This is how a whole generation of honest, hard working savers got tricked out of their life savings by con men who used the sneaky weapon on them called fiat currency and fractional reserve banking.  In other words, they were victims of a pump and dump money supply even if most of them had (or have today) zero idea what is really going on.  It has happened many times before in the world and, no, it will not be different this time.

Below is the daily chart.  I could not fit all of [c] onto the page so this is just -2- through -5- of [c].  You can start to make out the very low level detail in this chart, including that fact that the big sell off in January of this year started what has turned into an ending diagonal.  It makes good sense that the 5th wave really started in January of this year and that is what the negative "January Effect" from this year was telling us. 

The market should have begun down earlier IMO but every possible thing that could be done was in fact done to pump this mess up in the ridiculous hopes that it would never deflate.  But since these prices are up this high only due to the record use of margin debt (a form of "liquidity"), its deflation is 100% guaranteed.  Only the timing is in question. 


I think this chart is telling us that the top was last Friday going into the long 4th of July holiday.  I'm going to give it the highest level of confidence that I have ever given to a chart: 99.9%.  Yes, I will leave 0.1% chance that the chart morphs into another count but if so it will not be significantly higher than this.


I also want to point out that everyone is expecting the rally to hit S+P 2000.  That is exactly the reason for it not to do so.  Too many people are too confident that the S+P 500 will hit 2k and then have a small correction and then power up to higher highs. But I just cannot see that in this chart. 

Yes, it is totally risky to make predictions in real time.  It is MUCH safer to make them when looking in the rear view mirror.  So let me offer you this iron clad guarantee: bet as much money as you are comfortable with after reading my charts and my words.  Then, if you lose any money AT ALL or are in ANY way dissatisfied then just make a post in the comments demanding your subscription price be refunded and you will in fact receive a full and immediate refund of the entire amount paid.  You have my word on that!

Seriously folks, the way to trade this is so simple.  Short this index right at the open or even in premarket.  Then set your stops for, say, $2 higher than Friday's close and then just walk away.  Call it 1990 to be safe.  If I am right they will not be able to take you out. 

The first confirmation that this count is correct will be a break down through the top blue line back into the blue channel.  Then it should quickly break below the lower blue channel.  Then maybe dance between blue and orange lines like they were pin ball bumpers before breaking back down into the orange channel, probably on a small 3rd wave.

When it breaks below the lower rail of the orange channel, expect the herd to begin getting visibly nervous.  Nobody will want to be the last one out of this pump and dump scam.

The only thing that I am not certain about is whether that last little run from 1983.20 to 1985.59 is a full 5 waves up or not.  The chart does not have a lower resolution than 1 minute.  But fear not, it means that if it does nudge higher (i.e. to try to hit that 2k mark) then it all has to happen within 5 minutes of the open.  You will not have to wait very long to determine if this model is flawed or not.

As usual, time will tell.  Good luck to all!