Minor miner update.

Here is my prior metals and miners update.  

My current model for the Jr miners is shown in the GDXJ chart below.  Per the prior post, I have been looking to change it but it has not given me the sign yet and so it remains as below.  That declining double top is dancing right around the resistance line which is a bit unusual.  This implies that, while the herd knows it exists, it might not be very strong resistance or support.  And this implies that this triangle model will turn out not to be correct.  But until it tips its hand, I stick with it.

I see three likely possibilities modeled in red, pink, and blue below.  The blue model says that we just finished an "e" wave throwover of a horizontal triangle.  If this is the case, expect a big down draft for the miners as wave 5 plays out.  Wave 5 down will be a very exciting event for me because then it means a big bull market to the level of the prior 4th in which JNUG will produce incredible returns. 

The pink model says that wave B is forming as a horizontal triangle.  See more detail on that in the zoom in at the bottom of this post.  The red wave says that the first wave coming down from "e" was a of B, the subsequent declining double top was b of B and now we should expect a pull back to the level of the prior 4th wave as c of B plays out.

There is one common denominator to all of these models: the next move should be down.  

Here is the zoom in detail mentioned above pertaining to the red and the pink models.  Again, at the very least we should see a trip to the bottom of the channel:

 

Given the high likelihood of a downward move coming in the juniors, I opened a position in JDST today at $12.25.  Stops are in at $12.28 so that I can't even lose the cost of the trade if this reverses on my (down gaps excluded of course).

Price targets for pink and red path.  Given my stops in place its very unlikely that I will lose money on this trade and much more likely that it's just a matter of how much I will make.