Metals and miners update

I've been getting some private emails of late asking me "is gold a good investment right now"?   I've written this many times before and I will continue writing it: gold is not an investment at all.  Gold is money.  Gold is savings.  By "investment" what people really mean is "is this a good time to time the market with gold".  

And even that is wrong.  What they really, really mean to assess is whether the dollar is strong or weak.  If weaker than it should be (all things considered), they might want to get into dollars and out of other things, including gold.  If stronger than it should be (again all things considered) then a reversion to a weaker mean is the expectation and they should get into gold while this happens.  Think of it as a boat on the water where a tide is coming and going.  If they don't want to go where the prevailing tide is trying to take them, they put down an anchor.  Gold is like an anchor.  Gold is not moving, it stops you from moving with the swings of the dollar.  So when deciding whether or not to buy gold "at this time" people are really timing the dollar and not gold.

People who do this will of course be looking to sell gold at the right time in order to book a profit.  These people are not saving, they are gambling on swings of the dollar.  People who buy a little gold each quarter and stash it away, these people are saving.

Wall St. has drastically blurred the line between gambling and saving in the mind of those with excess wealth available after paying the monthly bills.  Those who say gold is a lousy investment because it pays no dividend are 100% right even though they are clueless about why they are right.  Gold doesn't pay any dividend.  You can't make money on gold sitting in your vault (unless you are big enough to run a fractional gold leasing scam like the US government and others around the world are).  By definition, "investment" implies that you should expect a return whereas the only return you will get from gold is the return of your capital on demand, no questions asked, 24/7/365 and no matter what country you are living in.

Gold is not a commodity.
Gold is not an investment.
Gold is simply honest money and it has all the traits of honest money.

Gold is NOT the money of the land even though the constitution demands that it be.   It is clear that we have lost our way on this.  But that does not change the fact that gold is money.  It simply means we are working our way through a period of abject stupidity.

So, changing the question to "is this a good time to get out of the dollar" the answer is "what is your time frame".  If someone answers "10-20 years" then definitely yes.  The USD will have a major currency crisis by then without doubt.  But lots of swings will occur between now and then.

Assuming anyone who read this far is really just a short term gambler looking for the wave count, here you go.  Bottom line is that A of E of 4 is probably done and now tracing out B.  I expect that to go back to the 38.2 fib at least and it can even fill the gap at the 61.8 if it wants to.  But when we see 5-3-5 it should be done with B and be ready to head back up to C.  JNUG will make you a killing if you buy it once the 5-3-5 is done and then set stops below your buy point.

Even more exciting, however, will be after that 4th wave is complete because that 5th wave will enable you to safely flip short them miners into JDST.  What is so very important about this is risk mitigation.  A 4th wave triangle is very easy to see.   If it plays out as expected there will be only one allowable movement left: 5 waves down into wave 5.  They could be large or small waves but chances are that they will break below the lower rail on 3 of 5. This is how you will be able to keep track of the count.  I estimate that JDST will multiply 4x between blue 4 and blue 5.