Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Marginal players get hit the first and the worst.

While the DJIA, $COMPX and S+P 500 have been on steady inclines since February, the small cap Russell 2000 has not.  This is bearish divergence.  When you see the weaker soldiers begin to fall out of line and faint then you know the squad has been standing at attention too long.

The left chart shows the high level count.  The right chart shows that the decline into mid may was choppy and disorganized which is the sign of a corrective wave while the bounce since thing has been a clear impulse wave which made a slightly higher high.

Since that high on July 1st, the index rapidly came down to kiss the top of its channel from above, bounce into a second wave of the vee style, reverse suddenly into a big 3rd wave that took out both the upper and lower rail and which now is consolidating its losses in a 4th wave triangle.  While this direction change is not confirmed yet (it needs 5 motive waves down and only has 3 so far), this is not bullish and it thus calls BS on the senior indices.


Anyone wishing to short the Russell 2000 with 3x leverage can do so using the SRTY ETF which is already up 10% off the recent bottom.  Just set your stops 1 penny above blue 5 above/right and go about your business.  Very little risk, huge reward potential.  Heck, set them just above the orange channel.  They will not be able to take you out there either.

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