Thursday, July 17, 2014

GLD Update - C of 4 now under way.

GLD probably just admitted that it is going to complete a 4th wave triangle.  It got to roughly mid channel and then started doing the funky chicken shakeout dance.  When it was done, lo and behold it left a triangle in its wake.  And not just any triangle mind you.  It was bookends.  The triangles point at each other as you often see from internal "3's" of a triangle.  So I really think this is going to finish the move upward.  So now I am looking for a breakout above the top rail of that mid channel triangle and then either a kiss of the top rail from below or better still a throwover and then a break back down into the channel.

Of course, it doesn't have to do this but man is it a good looking setup.  The odds favor it greatly at this point.  Of course, GLD is a boringly slow mover.  GDXJ is medium speed and JNUG is the high speed playground where 10-20% moves in a day are not uncommon at all.  JNUG was up 22% today.  Yes that is break neck speed and very hard to play without a model to go by.


So let me tell you something and it will just be our little secret: if that line breaks the top channel and then comes back down into the channel then JDST is a BUY BUY BUY.  That break down back into the channel gives you two things:
  1. first confirmation that the 4th wave is over and that you are now working on a 5 wave move down into the 5th wave.
  2. a clear and unambiguous sell trigger.  If it breaks down into the channel then set stops just above the channel and let it go.
If this plays out as stated, JDST will end up in the low $6 range when GLD's 4th wave is complete.  Then GLD should crash to a lower low meaning JDST should skyrocket to... dare I even put it down in these pages so far in advance??  Yes of course I do.  $30.  That is not a guess, it's what my JDST model is telling me on the log scale.  That is nearly a 5 bagger.  That $6 JDST level should not take very long to achieve because the support line is rapidly down-sloping and that means that every delay requires the ETF to go even lower in order to touch the line.

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