Disney update

Original thesis: ending diagonal in throwover would break back into the channel. See the left hand chart in the models provided in this post (the 120 minute chart).

Previous update, working on wave 2 up after wave 1 down finished. 

Current snapshot: the chart bounced higher than I modeled but still well within EW rules as shown below. Decoding the lines:

• orange lines show that crazy looking wave 1 down was actually an expanding triangle/wizard's sleeve (and not chaos as it might appear without benefit of some trendlines).
• wave one bottomed as modeled in the prior post (long blue line is wave 1).
• the red triangle indicators suggest that the current move to the 61.8 fib was an a-b-c move.  
• the recent move into wave 2 kissed the 61.8% fib and it also exactly filled that internal gap shown in pink.

If this model is correct then wave 2 is now complete and we are now working on 3 of 1 of 3.  It should move with some conviction.

Backing out to the big picture again, if you remove all of the noise and just net out what happened recently, the chart broke the top of the diagonal into wave 5, broke back down into the channel on wave blue 1 but could not break down the lower rail because it takes the horsepower of a 3rd wave to break down significant support like this.  Now it seems ripe for a 3rd wave to come in and take out lower support somewhere in the red oblong.  In other words, the original thesis seems to be playing out (at least for the time being).