[CMG] update

I have had mixed success with the model on CMG.  Here is the previous post where I suspected a double top could be forming.  That did not happen.  Again, it can be difficult to discern between 3rds and 5ths which is why it is risky to go into options before the new trend has established itself.  This is why I have been focusing on TVIX: the ability to get out of a wrong count cheaply.

In any case, I think with the recent breakout of the top of the channel shown below that CMG is just about done.  It should break down below that top rail in the next week and then pick up steam to the downside.  I never thought I would see a Mexican restaurant treated like a dot bomb startup but the valuation metrics are right up there 63 trailing and 39 forward:

Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):	63.61
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2015):	39.24

What a complete farce.  This thing is going to absolutely collapse in share price even if their earnings don't.  It deserves a PE of 7, not 63 (the forward PE is a fantasy number that will never materialize).  The Jan 2016 leap puts are not a good enough deal (the 250s were "last" at 2.17 according to Yahoo).  I would pay that much for the 400s but something so deep out of the money as the 250s should be well, well under a buck with the vix so low and CMG share price @$678 today.  I think there are better options deals out there.