Bearish nonconfirmation of the Dow and NAS rallies seen in "Peak Exxon" model.

Check out the wave count model from my "peak Exxon" post which you can find here.  Below is the current chart that you can compare it to.  Looks like a) Elliott waves are real  b) my wave count was correct this time (they aren't always of course).

More importantly, the markets have been rallying these past few days with the NASDAQ just flying with reckless abandon.  So why is Exxon sell off?  Yep, they are quietly trying to get out the back door while everyone is distracted.  Remember, not everyone is a small fish like me.  When you are a hedge fund with hundreds of millions or several billions of dollars in the game, you cannot easily get in and get out without changing the share price.

I see the selling off of this thing as bearish nonconfirmation of the NASporia and DOWporia.  In a real bull market, XOM would not get left behind like this. 

At this point I think wave 1 down is now complete and we are working on wave 2.  I suspect that it will make it back up to the level of the prior 4th but from a wave count perspective, 5 tiny waves have bounced upward off of that red "b" and that is all that is required.  The shares have only bounced to the 23.6% fib, something that is actually pretty rare.  Generally the bounce is 38.2 or better.  If this begins to fall from here then look out below because it strongly suggests that a big gap down will occur in the 3rd wave. 

A big 3rd wave down could drop the shares to $95 or lower. That by itself would be bad enough but the real danger with that move is shown below.  The reason I got the count for the original post is that the following post is my high level model.  XOM is tracing out an expanded flat and is now in the monster C wave of it.  It is very, very late in the C of 5 of black C with all odds indicating that black C is now in the books.  If wave 1 of the new bear market is in place and wave 2 is also done or finishes early next week (NLT Tues but could be finished already) then a wave 3 will bring it back into the channel and that should be the sell signal for a lot of trading computers.

If XOM begins plummeting like that ("that" meaning like all the other crap social media stocks whose ending diagonal breakdowns have already put their shares into freefall), the world will notice.  It is one thing if useless Twitter goes into the dumper but nobody thinks XOM is useless or its shares worthless.  If XOM begins to head south like that, it will be with a lot of company.