Do you think trading computers are not watching this in real time?? Do you think that they will not lighten up their leverage as they see interest rates go up? Such an idea would make no sense based on what we know about record margin debt being employed in order to buy stocks on the NYSE.
Tell your family and friends that The Cap'n says the debt Ponzi is about to begin the big roll over. Tell them to look for the first 300-500 point down day on the DJIA and to use that as their sell signal. Tell them that the target price for the DJIA is sub 4k. When they finish laughing at you you will know that the collapse is upon us because their pride will mos def go before their fall.
How to best play the rise in rates, Cap'n? TBT, TMV, short the homebuilders, or ?
ReplyDeleteThanks in advance,
Steven B
Yes, yes, and somewhat. TBT will be an EASY triple, perhaps a quad or more. 100% sure. TMV?? Is there any difference in its chart and TBT's? I think not. Same outcome.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who simply shorts the home builders here is economically challenged IMO and will leave a lot of money on the shorting table. The best you can do is 100% on a short.
But if you take a "golden" home builder like TOL and go with options at the right time then you could do well. Note: I do not necessarily like the shape of TOL for that. It looks like it could turn out to be an ending diagonal. A break below $33 would change that view.
The difference is that TBT is 2X and TMV is 3X... right?
DeleteSteven B
Close.
ReplyDeleteTMV = Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares. It is provided by a company named Direxion.
TBT is the Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 2x Shares. It is run by a company named Proshares.
This is why the charts look almost exactly the same,just different scale.
Having said that, I predict that one sign for us shorts to take note of will be if similar funds by different ETF companies begin showing divergent charts. This will mean that these moneymen are losing control of their leveraged paper game. It is not safe to be in the market at all when we see this begin to happen because when they BK, and some or all of them will due to leverage and models that begin to not work as expected, they will take our winnings with them to bk court.
At the end of the day, the only winning move will have been not to play but rather to hoard cash. I happen to think I am a bit more market aware and lighter on my feet than most people and so I am taking the risk of getting fucked out of my winnings with eyes wide open.
When the fat part of the collapse happens (3rd of 3rd of 3rd of 3rd), it will probably not even be safe to leave money in your brokerage house which of course is yet another leveraged con game running high leverage based on "kant miss" models that will suddenly stop working properly leading to rapid collapse of the whole dirty mess.
DO NOT make the mistake of thinking that you will win simply because you are on the right side of the trade. The powers that be will steal from shorts as they did back in 2007-2009 when they made it illegal to short the banks even though share price has nothing to do with banking operations. Banks can't exist with share price of one cent but the con men know there will be no confidence in that so they didn't allow it. These bastards will not let honesty return without a major fight. They will lose the fight but they might decide that since they are going down, everyone will be going down with them.
TLT bullish.
ReplyDeleteTLT bullish.
ReplyDeleteAgree on TLT, it is in the early part of a French curve heading up.
ReplyDelete