Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Time to look at TVIX again.

Well, they really accelerated the crash of TVIX as the DJIA ending diagonal has played out.  I've been in and out of it several times over the past 3 quarters. Sometimes I sneaked out with a nice profit, other times I've gotten stopped out at a loss.  But all of those experiences were leading me to a time when the DJIA would finally peak and herd irrational exuberance would suddenly reverse and turn into panic. 

All the market signs are telling me that the panic is not far off.  The fear in the herd is not dead.  It was only lulled into a false sense of security by something for nothing liberal economic policy.   Since liberalism is coming under broad attack all over the place, expect economic liberalism to be a casualty as well.  No, it's not going to be different just because it's money.  The herd is now demanding conservatism and the con men will either provide it, get thrown out of office in disgrace, or get killed in the streets if they resist.  The US has long had some of the smartest con men on the planet.  I think we are already seeing them turn coat into closet conservatives instead of digging in their heels and fighting the massive pendulum which is the mood of the herd.

Put options are about to come back into vogue as leveraged market players begin to rediscover the importance of having some insurance on your bet.  TVIX is how I will be doing most of my put option playing during the coming crash because it will allow me to bail out with high liquidity if I see corrupt government picking winners and losers in the stock market like it did last time around.

Here's the recent chart:


There is a massive great depression in fear.  Complacency abounds while everyone is leveraged long to the hilt.  I plan to go into the insurance business  tomorrow.  I will become an insurance reseller.  I will make a massive one time buy at fire sale prices and then redistribute it later on at retail prices as all the fools who need insurance but don't have any come rushing in to bid it up.  Boys, you knocked it into the dirt but don't expect me to sell out cheap.  You will be paying up for my TVIX.

2 comments:

  1. Captain,

    Curious as to what your short term trigger to bail on TVIX would be?

    Appreciate your time!

    Chance

    ReplyDelete
  2. Chance, the VIX is now at historic lows. Look for a quick post that attempts to answer your question.

    ReplyDelete

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