Few people looking at the only real economic indicator that matters.

If you want to know where the markets are heading then keep an eye on interest rates.  I assert that the US is running a global debt Ponzi.  If this is indeed the case then the ability to keep it going depends on low interest rates, check that, DECLINING interest rates forever.  Well, that is not possible because interest rates are zero bound.  This is the math behind why a debt Ponzi must eventually fail.  Again, know these two major points:

• A Ponzi pays out winners using new energy coming into the Ponzi, not from growth generated by the Ponzi.  In the case of a debt Ponzi, the energy source is debt.  

• The ability to take on new debt to buy things at ever higher prices is completely related to the interest rate that debt is available for.  The markets are not being bought with cash.  They are being bought with margin debt.  As soon as margin debt becomes too expensive to justify its use to buy stocks, debt based purchases will stop.  When that happens, market "growth" will turn negative as everyone begins to head for the door.  
• It was a self-reinforcing spiral on the way up and it will be no different on the way down.

My wave count for TNX (the ETF which tracks the 10 year US treasury) indicates that wave C of 2 is now complete.  If this is the case then we should soon see a higher high than blue b and when that happens, the market is going to stand up, take notice and go back into risk off mode after years of complacency since 2009.

TNX recently hit the 38.2% fib where it found solid support.  So, the bond market might be thinking that now that Helicopter Ben Bernanke is out, those that are left might be returning to, well, errrrr, economic conservatism.  Right in line with other conservatism indicators I have been tracking.  We should know very shortly if this wave pattern in TNX holds but I think the odds are high at this point that it will.