Monday, June 23, 2014

FAZ looking very good for re-entry here.

The FAZ chart is really looking like a bottom here.  I can see the possibility where the wave that just finished is not really 5 but rather part of an large ending diagonal but if that is the case then the crash will be put off until darned near Q3 and with major companies taking hits following earnings, I just don't think we have that much more time.  I think Q2 will show negative growth and it will blow away all the excuses about bad weather causing -1% growth in Q1.  2 Qs in a row=recession.  The market participants will scamper for the exits if that becomes the official word.

This is an easy, easy trade.  Buy at the open and set your stop for just 10 cents lower than today's low.  Do keep in mind that this could just be 3 of 5 of 5.  But something tells me this could be numero cinco.  Time will tell.



2 comments:

  1. Cap'n,
    Big pop in financials today, led by BAC after paying (bribing?) $16+B to stop further investigation into MBS's. What do you see ahead for the banks, and does the FAZ enter back into our picture?
    Steven B.

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  2. While the ETF did indeed go up after I made this post, I is now lower than before. I think it could be on the 5th wave just like I think TVIX is. But will it extend and literally beat the shit out of anyone who tries to catch that falling knife? Could be. The most long lasting reversals have capitulation by the opposition just before the reversal. In this case, the head and shoulders Aug 1-11 was just ugly. The lower support rail is at about 16.25 tomorrow right when Yellen is set to speak so it will be interesting if this acts as a floor. I do believe it is ready for a relief rally but I will need some more data to venture an opinion on how big it could be. But clearly any move up out of the top rail is a strong buy at this point (currently about $18.40 but declining each day).

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