Tuesday, June 17, 2014

DRD is catching a nice bid.

Here is the last post I did on DRD and here is a re-post of the model chart I provided in it.  My primary count was in blue and my secondary count was to expect one more wave lower:



Here is the current close up chart.  So far, the blue count which was my main count has been playing out.  I believe that DRD has reached the bottom of a very long bear market in which it has traded out of synch with many of the other mining players.  That's because it had a large bubble to work off in its prior run to $60.  I think we should see a run to about $4.60 before it will be time to go to the sidelines and let it rest.  It could indeed put in a big double bottom here so I would not want to give up my gains.  [edit 5 mins after original post]  It could also be that the spike we just saw was the short term peak and the chart will now go put in the double bottom.  That unicorn horn is often associated with declining double tops.  We are not in the clear for 3rd wave formation until we get a higher high than $3.50.
 
Its the turning points where you get the most thrashing as the market tries to punish the early leaders.

 
It is no different than being the first wildebeest into the river.  Sometimes you jump right into the waiting jaws of the submerged croc.  Sometimes the crocs are caught unaware and your splashing draws the crocs who feast on those to follow while you not only get an early crossing but you also get to stake out the best feeding and breeding ground on the other side.  There is a huge reward for being first because the risk of attempting it is proportionally higher.  Risk based reward is universal, healthy and even required in an working ecosystem.  It's only when someone like the government comes in and tries to pick winners and losers that the whole thing gets out of balance and threatens to fly apart.

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