Amazon update

Here is my previous post on AMZN.  As you can see from the lower chart in that post, I modeled that AMZN would break down below the top rail and then re-test it from below.  It took the power of a 3rd wave to break down the top rail and then it was back-tested from below both by black 4 and more importantly by blue 2 (an a-b-c to the level of the prior 4th).

At 20,000 feet, the chart looks like 5 wave up but when I zoom in I can see a 5-3-5 pattern.  That coupled with a kiss of the new resistance from below and having peaked at the level of the prior 4th makes me wonder if AMZN is not trying to pose as an impulsive wave up when in fact it was corrective.  Time will tell but the call on this one is easy: cover shorts above $340 and let it play out.  Personally I think it is done.  I think retail sales is the first thing to go in a recession (which we are no doubt already in) and AMZN is not immune to this. 

This is a good short entry point for new money because the distance to the bail trigger is so short:  1% would be $34 and that would take you well above the recommended bail point.  Short it now and if it gains $17 from here, cover.  What could be simpler?  It might not work out and if not then you lose almost nothing.  But if my count is right, AMZN is ready to collapse into a 3rd wave down.  So this is an asymmetrical bet of the smartest kind even if it doesn't eventually work out.  It's about odds, not certainties and that's why they call it gambling and not winning.