Alternate viewpoint suggest a pop in metals and miners very soon.

Right now, metals and miners are trying to figure out if their big pullback is over or if the bear market has more pain ahead.  One view is that we are only in 4 of A down.  While I hope this is not the case, hope is not a strategy.  So I have to consider all of the possibilities.  The current chart below has two possible reads.  It could either be that we just finished  C wave down and that it is all blue skies ahead OR it could be that we are just working on a 4th wave and than it will be followed by a 5th wave down after a rally (which is what is shown below).

Either way it seems that the next move, which is all we should really care about as speculating too far into the future is pointless, is up.  But be very aware that if we do start a rally in M+M here and if it does look like a 3 wave move where the A wave kisses the underside of the top rail and then the C wave smashes through then the model below could well be the right one and in that case the E wave of [4] will peter out and then fall back through the triangle down 5 waves into wave [5].  In other words, if we start seeing "to the moon" talk about gold in the coming weeks, be nimble, be afraid, be willing to trade.

From a trading perspective, if gold begins to break out like this, expect excitement and momentum to happen in the mining segment.  Note that the E wave would likely throw over a bit, so it could be as strong a move upward as the C of 4th wave was.  In the picture below of the highly leveraged JNUG ETF you can see that this could translate into a price in the 40s.  That would be quite a nice gain from current level of $15 and change!  You can buy JNUG here and then sell if it goes below the prior low or you can wait to see if it breaks out of the down sloping orange line and then buy the first pullback after that happens.  The sell trigger in the latter case is clear: a break back below the downsloping line puts this model in great risk. 

But something tells me that the recent ECB attempts to battle the inevitable credit deflation using negative interest rates are going to send the metals up at least in the short term.  Gold might not pay a dividend but negative interest rates mean that you lose buying power holding cash.  If you need to hold cash and the Euro scammers are going to punish you for holding it then it could push people into the universal foreign currency known as gold.

Good luck, fellow gamblers!