Metals and miners at a decision point

My primary model is that the 5 small waves up in JNUG was just 1 of 3 of C.  But in the interest of fear and discipline, I have to wonder if the 5th wave of an ending diagonal is about to start.  See the chart model below.  On the 120 minute chart at left, you can see that the chart petered out right at a line drawn parallel to the lower line.  Parallel lines are a fundamental part of EW support and resistance so they must always be considered and when you have weakness or strength at one of them then I need to pay attention.

To the right there is my primary model which is blue and then the other likely model which is red.  In the red model, this chart falls all the way to the bottom of the channel.  This would explain the big, flagrant "4th" wave on the left chart at the top of the blue lines.

In any case I expect JNUG weakness at the open, perhaps even a 3rd of C wave gap down.  A higher high than the "c or 1" wave tips it heavily toward being 3rd of 3rd of C up (the blue route).  Pulling back much more than the prior 4th wave should add fear that it is going all the way to the bottom of the channel one last time.