Beware near term gold and silver being caught in downdraft of falling broader markets.

I recently put in another potential topping call for the broader markets.  I don't do this every week or even every month but I have clearly been on topping watch for several quarters now.  Some people think the markets have been up big in this time frame but it is just not true.  Despite all talk of "record S+P, it is currently at 1888.64 and it started the year at 1850.  That is a measly 2% folks.  That is nothing.  It is now mid May and all the markets could muster was 2%??  That piddling amount can evaporate in an eye blink.  This is not my definition of strength.  It is how markets top off and then roll over.  I never did expect a 5 year, fed fueled bull market to just suddenly reverse, it was always referred to as "topping" which implies an ongoing process.

But there has to be an exact top and for the sake of financial entertainment I post my wave counts here when I think the odds (not certainties) of a top being in place are high.  I have said for many months now that it would likely turn out to be a "walk away" May.  That makes my most recent topping call higher odds IMO.  Also, the 1900 round number has psychological resistance to the herd, something akin to knowing that there is an electric fence at a certain location long after the farmer stopped repairing it.  In other words, the herd could move right through if they really wanted to but they don't want to.

A long term theme I have had, and posted many times about it in this blog, is the eventual re-monification of gold and probably silver too.  I predict that within 10 years banks and corporations will begin carrying gold, physical gold that is, as an asset on their balance sheets again, just like they used to in days gone by.  They will use this gold as a symbol of their strength and staying power.  They will do it not because they want to but because they will come to the understanding that paper money will not be trusted to the degree it once was by the people and gold bullion is a huge confidence builder.  The smart institutions will even allow public audits and make something of a big deal about it.

But I also worry that the first wave of stock selling will cause a huge downdraft for everything because there is a lot of leverage being employed and when you get a margin call on your risky bet you have to sell something of real value to pay for it.  So the first wave of market selling could bring gold lower.  The waves are out of synch but one should not expect that the degree of phase difference is exactly 180 degrees.  Nothing in nature works like that.

In this post from early March I warned people that the wave action was looking toppy and that it was happening right at the predicted upper channel of an ending diagonal. While gold did go up a small amount more after that post, it promptly reversed and went down to appear much like my model, at least so far.

So what comes next?  The obvious truth is that I don't know for sure.  Nobody does.  But there are two likely outcomes and both have trigger levels associated with them.  In the short term down situation, the chart will likely break below orange support with gusto some place within the red oblong.  In the case of the short term bull scenario, the chart will break out of the down trending channel lines somewhere within the blue circle.  On one hand, I wonder if the downdraft in the broader markets will cause the red route to be taken.  On the other hand, this would create a very, very bullish setup once that end wave of the ending diagonal breaks down.  It could in fact be the end of the metals bear market.  The short term sell off into C of 5 (the last wave of the 5 wave ending diagonal) is what I not only think but actually hope will happen.  In that case I would expect a throw under to about $110-$112 on GLD.  A subsequent break back up into the ending diagonal channel would be a strong buy signal.